It was with deep and sincere sadness and vile anger that we met the fourth anniversary of Russia’s second and most devastating invasion of Ukraine.
On the anniversary of this most heinous and barbaric invasion of Ukraine, we are taking stock of where the peace talks are heading.
Most analysts agree that there are three sticking points to a full, complete and just peace for Ukraine.
First, the situation surrounding Donbas. According to the NYTimesApp, only 40 percent of all of Ukrainian respondents have favoured handing over Donbas to Russia.
However, cities like Sloviansk in Donbas are relatively thriving from the war as thousands of soldiers are stationed there just 12 miles from the front.
Ukraine has also fortified magnificently over 20 percent of Donbas. Casualties for Russia have been astronomical.
Most Ukrainians don’t think its fair that Russia should be given Donbas after not being able to conquer it on the battlefield.
Moreover, most believe that Russia cannot conquer Donbas. Russian casualties since 2022 are over 1.2 million for dead, wounded and missing soldiers. Replacements lack skills and wherewithhall.
The best and most likely alternative once it gains Russian support is making Donbas a fully demilitarised zone and free economic zone.
Each side’s soldiers would fall back the same distance and a free economic zone would flourish providing incentives to rebuild a famously industrial region with state of the art equipment and facilities.
This plan has tacit US and Ukrainian support right now. Russia has failed to respond to it. It is unlikely to me that Russia would agree without reviewing the financial losses due to sanctions and reimbursing Russia at some stage for part of the losses.
Regarding security guarantees, there are after Donbas two remaining questions. First US as a backstop to defend Ukraine from future invasions after the conclusion of the war. In baseball a backstop keeps the ball from getting too far out of play.
Second the presence and mission of coalition European forces to maintain a military presence in Ukraine and use force if necessary to defend Ukraine.